Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
